Notes on the World

The global system we live in is not breaking because of a single shock or a single bad decision. It is breaking because several long-running structural forces are converging at the same time. Demographics, resources, economics, climate, and power are all moving in directions that make instability more likely and cooperation harder. What follows is not a prediction of a single war or collapse, but an outline of why the world feels increasingly brittle and why the coming decades are likely to be more violent and more fragmented than the last.

Demographics as the Core Pressure

The defining factor shaping global politics is population structure. Ageing societies consume more than they produce. Younger societies do the opposite. When the balance tips too far in either direction, political stability suffers.

Much of Europe, East Asia, Russia, and parts of China are ageing rapidly. As this happens, consumption shifts away from growth-driving sectors such as housing, family formation, and durable goods. Capital shrinks, labour becomes scarce, and governments struggle to maintain welfare systems without eroding productivity. Political division increases as fewer workers support more dependents.

At the other end of the spectrum, regions with large and rapidly growing youth populations face a different problem. When young people reach a critical mass without sufficient economic opportunity, instability becomes highly likely. This dynamic underpins much of the persistent unrest in the Middle East and parts of Africa, where demographics, weak institutions, and limited growth reinforce one another.

Economic Distortion and Social Strain

No government is willing to tell its population that the next generation will live worse than the last. Instead, states rely on growth narratives, debt, and inflation to disguise stagnation. Inflation benefits those who hold assets and capital, while wages fall behind. Over time, income erases smaller wages, and inequality widens.

As populations grow or age, competition for resources intensifies. Living standards for ordinary workers decline even in wealthy societies. Real estate and other tangible assets rise in value as people seek protection from currency erosion. This deepens class divides and feeds political extremism as centrist systems fail to resolve structural problems.

Culture begins to fragment under this pressure. Traditional narratives lose credibility. Emotional, negative, and often radical philosophies take hold. Politics becomes less about compromise and more about survival.

Major Powers Acting Under Time Pressure

Russia and China both understand that their current power rests on demographic and economic conditions that are deteriorating. Russia has no natural defensive boundaries and has historically relied on population depth to absorb losses. That option is closing. China faces ageing, internal water scarcity, and economic constraints that will worsen over time.

Both are therefore incentivised to act earlier rather than later. Aggression is not ideological but strategic, driven by the belief that relative strength is peaking. China's efforts to reshape regional economic systems and reduce vulnerability to maritime choke points reflect this logic. Russia's outward pressure reflects insecurity rather than confidence.

Other states are responding to the same reality. Turkey recognises its demographic advantage in an ageing neighbourhood. India, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, and the United States all worry that inaction today risks strategic subordination tomorrow.

The Unravelling of the Western Order

For decades, global stability rested on American maritime dominance and the guarantee of safe, cheap sea trade. This system enabled unprecedented prosperity, but it also hollowed out parts of the American middle class while benefiting elites and allied economies.

As the United States pulls back from this role, the consequences are becoming clear. Europe lacks the military capacity, energy independence, and political cohesion to replace American power. States that once criticised US hegemony now face the reality that without it they would need to slash welfare systems, secure energy by force, and rearm at speed.

Internal revolt against the existing economic and political model is already underway across much of the West. Societies are being forced to reconfigure whether they are ready or not.

Power Vacuums and Fragile Regions

Nowhere is this more visible than in Africa and parts of the Middle East. These regions combine rapid population growth, weak militaries, arbitrary borders, entrenched elites, and increasing climate stress. Power vacuums are widening. External influence is returning in new forms, whether through regional powers or global competitors seeking leverage.

The result is not immediate collapse everywhere, but a steady erosion of state authority and rising potential for conflict, migration, and proxy competition.

Climate as an Accelerator

Climate change does not create these problems, but it accelerates them. Water scarcity, food insecurity, and heat stress amplify existing demographic and economic pressures. River systems become strategic assets. Agricultural systems become more fragile. Young populations without opportunity become more volatile.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the Middle East, where large youth populations and weak economic growth collide with environmental limits.

Conclusion

What we are witnessing is not a single crisis but the slow failure of a system built for a different demographic and economic reality. Ageing societies are becoming poorer and more divided. Young societies are becoming more unstable. Major powers are acting now because they expect to be weaker later. The global order that once dampened conflict is fading faster than a replacement can form.

The transition will not be smooth. Bloodshed is likely. The next order may be more efficient, but it is also likely to be more coercive and less forgiving.

This is the world as it stands, and the world that is forming.