The Strait of Hormuz: A Food Chokepoint
Every tonne of nitrogen fertiliser produced in the Persian Gulf exits through the same 33 kilometres of water. That is not a vulnerability that appeared recently. It is the geography. What has changed is how exposed the countries on the other end of those supply routes have become.
The amber fills on this map show fertiliser import dependency by tier — critical, significant, and moderate — across the countries most reliant on Gulf supply. The white arrows show the five corridors through which that supply moves: to South Asia, East Africa, the Red Sea and MENA, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The Strait of Hormuz sits at the origin of all five.
Synthetic nitrogen fertiliser sustains roughly half the global population. Its production depends almost entirely on natural gas — both as energy source and chemical feedstock. The Gulf has the gas. Most of the world does not. That concentration is what makes the Strait a food chokepoint, not just an energy one.
The 2021-22 European energy crisis demonstrated the mechanism at reduced intensity. When gas prices spiked, fertiliser plants across Europe cut output by up to 70 percent. A physical disruption at the Strait is the same mechanism without the pressure-relief valve of alternative supply.
The full analysis is in the accompanying sitrep.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Food Chokepoint
Context & Analysis
Every tonne of nitrogen fertiliser produced in the Persian Gulf exits through the same 33 kilometres of water. That is not a vulnerability that appeared recently. It is the geography. What has changed is how exposed the countries on the other end of those supply routes have become.
The amber fills on this map show fertiliser import dependency by tier — critical, significant, and moderate — across the countries most reliant on Gulf supply. The white arrows show the five corridors through which that supply moves: to South Asia, East Africa, the Red Sea and MENA, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The Strait of Hormuz sits at the origin of all five.
Synthetic nitrogen fertiliser sustains roughly half the global population. Its production depends almost entirely on natural gas — both as energy source and chemical feedstock. The Gulf has the gas. Most of the world does not. That concentration is what makes the Strait a food chokepoint, not just an energy one.
The 2021-22 European energy crisis demonstrated the mechanism at reduced intensity. When gas prices spiked, fertiliser plants across Europe cut output by up to 70 percent. A physical disruption at the Strait is the same mechanism without the pressure-relief valve of alternative supply.
The full analysis is in the accompanying sitrep.