Venezuela: Geography as Strategic Constraint
The situation in Venezuela should be understood not as an isolated intervention, but as part of a wider re-ordering of power as the world moves toward multipolarity.
The situation in Venezuela should be understood not as an isolated intervention, but as part of a wider re-ordering of power as the world moves decisively toward multipolarity. The United States is acting, belatedly, to reassert control over its near abroad while competitors consolidate theirs elsewhere.
Strategic Value
Venezuela's strategic value is not that the US needs its oil. It does not. Rather, control over Venezuelan oil shapes global supply, influencing prices and constraining the revenue streams of oil-dependent states such as Iran and Russia. In this sense, Venezuela is a lever in a wider economic war rather than a resource grab in the Iraq mould.
Geographic Complexity
Geography complicates this logic. Venezuela's oil wealth is concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo, far from political legitimacy and surrounded by terrain well suited to insurgency. Mountain chains in the north and west, dense jungle in the interior, and weak internal connectivity all favour irregular warfare over centralised control. Rebuilding oil infrastructure under these conditions will require sustained security, technical expertise, and time measured in decades, not months.
Human Geography
The human geography is equally problematic. While the collapse of the Maduro regime may be welcomed, foreign governance risks fuelling nationalist resistance. Any narrative of "liberation" will be contested, particularly by European states clinging to a rules-based order that no longer reflects reality.
Assessment
The core question is not tactical success, which appears decisive, but strategic endurance. If this operation is not embedded within a long-term US foreign policy framework, the resulting power vacuum could prove more destabilising than the regime it replaces.
**Geography guarantees that Venezuela will punish half-measures.**
Venezuela: Geography as Strategic Constraint
The situation in Venezuela should be understood not as an isolated intervention, but as part of a wider re-ordering of power as the world moves toward multipolarity.
The situation in Venezuela should be understood not as an isolated intervention, but as part of a wider re-ordering of power as the world moves decisively toward multipolarity. The United States is acting, belatedly, to reassert control over its near abroad while competitors consolidate theirs elsewhere.
Strategic Value
Venezuela's strategic value is not that the US needs its oil. It does not. Rather, control over Venezuelan oil shapes global supply, influencing prices and constraining the revenue streams of oil-dependent states such as Iran and Russia. In this sense, Venezuela is a lever in a wider economic war rather than a resource grab in the Iraq mould.
Geographic Complexity
Geography complicates this logic. Venezuela's oil wealth is concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo, far from political legitimacy and surrounded by terrain well suited to insurgency. Mountain chains in the north and west, dense jungle in the interior, and weak internal connectivity all favour irregular warfare over centralised control. Rebuilding oil infrastructure under these conditions will require sustained security, technical expertise, and time measured in decades, not months.
Human Geography
The human geography is equally problematic. While the collapse of the Maduro regime may be welcomed, foreign governance risks fuelling nationalist resistance. Any narrative of "liberation" will be contested, particularly by European states clinging to a rules-based order that no longer reflects reality.
Assessment
The core question is not tactical success, which appears decisive, but strategic endurance. If this operation is not embedded within a long-term US foreign policy framework, the resulting power vacuum could prove more destabilising than the regime it replaces.
**Geography guarantees that Venezuela will punish half-measures.**